Monday night Premier League action comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host Nottingham Forest in a game with different priorities for both clubs heading into the closing weeks of the season.
Chelsea still have league targets to chase. They can finish as high as sixth, which would secure Europa League qualification, so motivation should be clear. Their recent story has been turbulent.
The display against Brighton was so poor it raised major questions around the squad, with the performance looking devoid of intensity. Liam Rosenior has since gone, and the same group responded with an excellent FA Cup semi final showing under caretaker Calum McFarlane against Leeds.
Underlying numbers suggest Chelsea are stronger than recent league results indicate. At home they average 1.69 xG and 1.50 xGA, ranking seventh in the division by home xG ratio. Across the last eight matches they posted 13.5 xPTS, which puts them eighth but collected only four actual points (19th), pointing to underperformance. Even over the last four they created enough for 4.01 xPTS despite taking none.
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